Big Brother: The Final Four And The Renegade Two
Spoiler Free Commentary by Mike Shields
Sept 6, 2008
Again, no surprises as Renny was evicted. Dan won the HoH competition, giving us what could be an interesting final few shows. After the veto meeting, and before the eviction, Jerry went around creating dissent between the other three. He tried to make a deal with Dan, and Keesha, as he believes his deal with Memphis is dead. This will probably come back to haunt Memphis later, if he makes it to the final two.
After the eviction, we got a glimpse of the jury house. As you already know, Libra was joined by April, Michelle, and Ollie, and soon to be joined by the aforementioned Renny. This recap will become important shortly.
Earning the HoH at this point guarantees you a spot in the final three, however, the real power this week comes from winning the veto competition. Given that Dan will probably put Jerry up against Keesha as the pawn, Jerry is in the must win situation. Otherwise, he goes to the jury house, where he doesn't have any friends, either. It will be interesting to see if he can sway any votes away from Dan if he makes it to the final two.
Dan and Memphis don't quite trust Keesha 100%, therefore, she would do well to win the veto this week, guaranteeing her spot in the final three. Jerry will probably still go home, unless he can sway Keesha to voting Memphis out, however, he had no power over her last night. If either Memphis or Dan win the veto, the nominations stay the same, and Jerry goes home, unless Keesha says or does something strange, which would further their mistrust of her.
We can now project how this game will end, based on the above. The Renegades will end up in the final two, unless Keesha can win the final HoH competition. She hasn't won an endurance competition yet, and she didn't do too well at the last intellectual competition, however, she is smart enough to do so, therefore, we can give her a 33% chance of making it to the final two, in which case, I think she'll take Dan with her. Why?
Look at who's left, and who's voting for the winner. Everyone that's gone to the jury house is there either directly or indirectly because of Dan. Jerry might not need to sway any votes away from Dan, simply because he probably won't get any. So, if The Renegades make it to the final two, Memphis could walk away with the half a million dollars.
Of course, this all presupposes that Jerry goes home next. If Jerry wins the veto, he takes himself off, and then Memphis goes on the block, at which point, he's most likely to goto the jury house. Simply because Memphis recently betrayed Jerry when he took Dan off the block. I still don't understand why Memphis believes his deal with Jerry is in place.
With this projected final three, everything is up for grabs, however, if Memphis isn't in the house, Dan would probably take Jerry with him to the final two, as he'd have the best chance at the money this way, as I previously stated. Jerry takes Dan for the same reason. Keesha can take either Jerry or Dan, as she gets most if not all of the votes from the jury, if she were to win the final HoH competition.
So, with our final four, the odds of who wins are as follows: Memphis 50%, Keesha 25%, Dan 15%, and Jerry at about 10%. I've rounded off to make the betting lines easier. So, place your bets, and tune in Sunday. I know I will.
Disclaimer: Mike's views don't necessarily reflect anyone else's that you know, and sometimes,
not even his own. If you'd like to discuss your necessarily opposing view, feel free to contact him.
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